NOAA has reached an important milestone in the development of the Seasonal Forecast System (SFS) Project with the March 2026 launch of the SFS Beta v1.0 Prototype and its new near-real-time (NRT) capability. Developed by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and work from the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Physical Sciences Lab and Global Systems Lab (OAR PSL and GSL), this initial version produces monthly seasonal forecasts extending up to 12 months into the future, marking a key step toward the next generation of Earth system prediction. The project is jointly supported and managed by the NOAA/NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) Modeling Program and the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Weather Program Office (WPO) S2S Program
In addition to real-time forecasts, SFS Beta generates corresponding historical reforecasts spanning 1991 to 2025. Together, these outputs provide a consistent framework for evaluating forecast performance and supporting research and applications across subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales.
To support open science and collaboration, atmospheric and oceanic datasets from both the reforecasts and near-real-time predictions are now publicly available through the SFS Application Team’s cloud-hosted platform. This access enables researchers, forecasters, and stakeholders to explore system behavior, assess performance, and develop new applications using a shared dataset.
As development continues toward the planned operational implementation of SFSv1 around the end of 2027, engagement from the broader community remains a central component of the project. NOAA is encouraging users to analyze the SFS Beta data and provide feedback to help guide ongoing system improvements.
Community input will play an important role in identifying model biases, evaluating sensitivities, and refining system parameters. The SFS Beta configuration will continue to evolve during this development phase, including updates to model physics, initialization approaches, and other key components as performance is assessed and improved.
Additional information on the SFS Beta prototype, including data access and technical background, is available on the SFS project webpages.
