Mar152023

CSU machine learning model helps forecasters improve confidence in storm prediction

Over the last several years, Russ Schumacher, professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science and Colorado State Climatologist, has led a team developing a sophisticated machine learning model for advancing skillful prediction of hazardous weather across the continental United States. First trained on historical records of excessive rainfall, the model is now smart enough to make accurate predictions of events like tornadoes and hail four to eight days in advance – the crucial sweet spot for forecasters to get information out to the public so they can prepare. The model is called CSU-MLP, or Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities. 

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Feb272023

NOAA's Weather Program Office Homepage. Image of a storm brewing over large field.

Advancing Research in our Highest Weather Impacts

We are a weather-weary and weather-worn nation, and the increase in billion-dollar disasters remains unabated. In the last 5 years alone, the United States has endured a total of 89 billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The U.S. government has responded with increased resources to better understand the weather and climate conditions that affect us…

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Nov142022

Satellite image centering on africa showing atmospheric patterns

EPIC as a Catalyst for NOAA’s Future Earth Prediction System

A new article published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society details how the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) is working to unify community weather modeling and advance numerical weather prediction using open-source and open-science methods.  Written by current and former NOAA leaders Richard W. Spinrad, Louis W. Uccellini, Dorothy M. Koch, Craig N.…

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Sep142022

Renee Richardson Cool Careers

Renee Richardson Featured On Cool Careers

Watch the video on NOAA’s Ocean Today > Transcript The most fascinating thing about hurricanes, to me, is how the atmosphere and ocean work together to form these massive storms that can cause such great destruction. What got me interested in hurricanes was 1999 Hurricane Floyd, powerful enough to actually knock a tree down, which…

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Sep82022

People on a zoom call through a laptop

Webinar: FY23 Notice of Funding Opportunity

WPO recently held a webinar hosted by the NOAA Central Library on the FY23 Notice of Funding Opportunity. Our Program Managers spoke in detail about about this year’s competitions for Observations, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Innovations for Community Modeling, and VORTEX-USA. We also shared tips on how to write a compelling proposal, how to successfully…

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Aug302022

RiVorS deployment (Photo by Matthew Mahalik/OU CIMMS)

Implications of Inconsistent Visuals

On end user uncertainty, risk perception, and behavioral intentions (Grundstein FY18) Within the last decade, operational meteorologists have raised concerns that the availability of weather information from a variety of sources may contribute to a perception that weather risk messages are inconsistent and result in negative consequences among end users. The challenge, however, is that…

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Aug302022

Global Extratropical Storm and Tide Operational Forecast System (Global ESTOFS)

Improving Water Level Predictions

Title: Advancing ADCIRC U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast Grids and Capabilities to Facilitate Coupling to the National Water Model in the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Operational Forecasting (Westerink FY18) The primary objective of this project is to improve predictions of water levels caused by extratropical tide and storm surge within the…

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