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Subseasonal to Seasonal Research Improves Extended-Range Weather Prediction

Global and regional weather patterns give researchers clues to predict weather from 2 weeks to 2 months in the future.

Subseasonal to Seasonal Research (S2S) significantly aids decision support across industries and also provides the knowledge necessary for forecasters and emergency managers to keep the public informed and prepared for weather phenomena.

Improving Skill and Enhancing Value

S2S Supports Forecast Innovation

Subseasonal to Seasonal Research (S2S) is a priority area for NOAA and the US congress due to its ability to fill emerging forecast needs in various economic sectors. This is reflected in two primary goals identified by NOAA and in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (the Weather Act). The S2S program works to:

  • Improve the skill of S2S forecast
  • Enhance the value of S2S products for stakeholders.

With new advances in forecasting, traditional weather models are pushed to predict further and further into the future. Global climate models are implemented at broader spatial and temporal resolution. This leaves a gap for prediction timescales of two weeks to two years, commonly referred to as the Subseasonal to Seasonal timescale.

The S2S program works to improve forecasts models by funding projects that:

  • Advance the scientific development of earth system models
  • Improve model representation of processes within and between model domains, including coupled data assimilation 
  • Develop coupled prediction systems related to weather pattern modulations associated with air-ocean-land-ice interactions
  • Reduce systematic model error
  • Focus on error and bias reduction of weather models (such as the UFS) using postprocessing, reanalysis/ reforecasts and other statistical tools

The S2S program additionally funds and coordinates aspects of the ongoing North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), an interagency/intergovernmental ensemble of coupled models from centers in the US and Canada, providing data for global, 12-month forecasts of 13 key variables. NMME data is used for multiple forecast needs.

What’s Happening Now

Updates & Events

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S2S Webinar Series

August 8th, 2022: The Development of UFS Coupled GEFS for Weather and Subseasonal Forecasts  Presenter:  Dr. Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC  OAR/WPO S2S Program and NWS/OSTI-Modeling invite…

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American Geophysical Union Headquarters

Upcoming Session at AGU

Don’t miss our upcoming sessions for: Prediction of Precipitation and Water Availability in the US West, S2S Metrics and Diagnostics, Emphasizing Coupling Processes, and Improving…

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Current Focus Areas

Precipitation

We support improvements to precipitation prediction within the UFS’s Seasonal Forecast System (SFS). Projects are solicited through the regular program calls, and may improve data assimilation, process modeling within the SFS, diagnostics, and post-processing techniques. The goal is to demonstrate improvements in precipitation prediction.

Western States Hydrology

We focus on hydroclimatological changes in major western US river basins, via assessments of snow cover, temperature, and precipitation changes that impact river flow. We seek to improve model representation of physical interactions (MJO, QBO, ENSO) that modulate baroclinic waves and drive atmospheric rivers, major storm events, and influence floods and drought.

Support for ICAMS

We provide scientific staffing support for several Implementation Teams (ITs) within the Committee on Research and Innovation and participate in the Subcommittee on Earth System Modeling and Prediction for the Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorological Services (ICAMS). Assisting these ITs supports the interagency structure, as well as connecting the S2S program with interagency efforts.

Model Development and Data Assimilation

We focus on innovative data assimilation (DA), especially coupled DA, which is integral to improving models and integrating new observation technologies. We also support development, improvement, and evaluation of model components and coupled modeling; and work to improve ensembles within S2S timescales.

Research in the Climate Testbed

We help researchers to mature and implement data assimilation (DA), coupled DA products, and quality control methods into forecast operations using the Climate Testbed. This includes algorithm improvement, post-processing, diagnostic and verification tools, innovative statistical techniques, and machine learning to improve operational S2S predictions.

High-resolution Ocean Modeling

We partnered with ONR in the NOPP 2022 Broad Area Announcement, selecting a project on improving high-resolution tide modeling within MOM6. The project will improve boundary conditions provided to coastal models, as well as improve Arctic ice flexure modeling

PROJECT VIGNETTES

Research and Modeling
to Improve S2S Timescale Predictions

SUBMIT YOUR PROPOSAL

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Research Program is currently accepting proposals for its Fiscal Year 2023 Notice of Funding Competition.

Submit your full proposal by November 17th, 2022.
Start your application in Grants Online today.

Have Questions?

Go through our step-by-step checklist to learn how to apply for funding.

Visit our Proposal Guide

Taking on Operational Challenges

Currently Funded Projects

Resource Library

Integrate Subseasonal to Seasonal Research into Your Projects

From the NOAA Institutional Repository

Report to Congress. Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting innovation: plans for the twenty-first century

Corporate Authors(s):National Weather Service (U.S.) Published Date: 2020

DOI : https://doi.org/10.25923/mesd-8b58

 

SubX Current and Potential Users Forum Report

Personal Author(s): Bassett, Christine; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Smith, Jonathan;

Corporate Authors(s): Weather Program Office (U.S.)

Conference Author(s): SubX Current and Potential Users Forum, August 24 – 26, 2021

Published Date : 2022

DOI : https://doi.org/10.25923/a7kd-c322

 

NOAA’s Subseasonal Experiment

Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

Published Date: 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/azn6-ff23

 

Community-Supported Research Initiatives For Improvement of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction

Personal Author(s): Brooks, Maureen; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Brown, Bonnie; Sandgathe, Scott; McCarren, David; James, C. Sim;

Corporate Authors(s): The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)

Published Date: 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/a4ca-p882

 

Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support

Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Weather Service; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.);

Conference Author(s): National Earth System Prediction Capability (sponsor)

Published Date: 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/n9p9-q979

 

Community-Supported Research Initiatives For Improvement of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction

Personal Author(s): Brooks, Maureen; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Brown, Bonnie;Sandgathe, Scott; McCarren, David; James, C. Sim;

Corporate Authors(s): The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)

Published Date: 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/a4ca-p882

 

Metrics, Post-Processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal Workshop: Fostering discussion of user needs; agency capabilities and products; gaps; and potential operational and technological solutions

Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Weather Service.; United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research;

Conference Author(s): Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal Workshop

Published Date: 2018

URL: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20613

 

Position paper on high performance computing needs in Earth system prediction

Personal Author(s): Carman, Jessie C.; Clune, Thomas; Giraldo, Francis; Govett, Mark; Kamrath, Anke; Lee, Tsengdar; McCarren, David; Michalakes, John; Sandgathe, Scott; Whitcomb, Tim;

Corporate Authors(s): National Earth System Prediction Capability (U.S.)

Published Date: 2017

DOI: http://doi.org/10.7289/V5862DH3

Journal Articles

Exploring the Need for Reliable Decadal Prediction

Sandgathe, S., Brown, B. R., Carman, J. C., Infanti, J. M., Johnson, B., McCarren, D., & McIlvain, E. (2020). Exploring the Need for Reliable Decadal Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society101(2), E141-E145. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/2/bams-d-19-0248.1.xml

 

Bridging the Gap between Climate and Weather

Sandgathe, S., Carman, J., Johnson, B., & McIlvain, E. (2018). Bridging the Gap between Climate and Weather, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society99(11), ES191-ES193. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/11/bams-d-18-0154.1.xml

 

Six Priorities for Investment in Snow Research and Product Development

Hurwitz, M. M., Baxter, S., Brown, B., Carman, J., Dale, J., Draper, C., Horsfall, F., Hughes, M., Gerth, J., Kapnick, S., Olheiser, C., Olsen, M., Stachelski, C., Vincent, M., Webb, R., & Zdrojewski, J. (2020). Six Priorities for Investment in Snow Research and Product Development, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (published online ahead of print 2020). Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/bamsD200218/bamsD200218.xml

 

The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant

Carman, J. C., Eleuterio, D. P., Gallaudet, T. C., Geernaert, G. L., Harr, P. A., Kaye, J. A., McCarren, D. H., McLean, C. N., Sandgathe, S. A., Toepfer, F., & Uccellini, L. W. (2017). The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society98(2), 239-252. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/2/bams-d-16-0002.1.xml

Access North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Access NMME Homepage at the Climate Prediction Center
Access the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Data Library
Access the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) Data Library
Access Data at the National Center for Environmental Information
Access Data at the National Center for Environmental Information
North American Multi-Model Ensemble- Seasonal System Signed Agreement
North American Multi-Model Ensemble- Seasonal System Signed Agreement

We Provide Seasonal to Subseasonal Research Support for the Weather Enterprise

Contact Our Team

Jessie Carman

Subseasonal to Seasonal Program Manager

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Mark Olsen

S2S Deputy Program Manager

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Christine Bassett

Subseasonal to Seasonal Program Coordinator

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DK Kang

Subseasonal to Seasonal Program Coordinator

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