Subseasonal to Seasonal Research (S2S) significantly aids decision support across industries and also provides the knowledge necessary for forecasters and emergency managers to keep the public informed and prepared for weather phenomena.
Subseasonal to Seasonal Research (S2S) is a priority area for NOAA and the US congress due to its ability to fill emerging forecast needs in various economic sectors. This is reflected in two primary goals identified by NOAA and in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (the Weather Act). The S2S program works to:
With new advances in forecasting, traditional weather models are pushed to predict further and further into the future. Global climate models are implemented at broader spatial and temporal resolution. This leaves a gap for prediction timescales of two weeks to two years, commonly referred to as the Subseasonal to Seasonal timescale.
The S2S program works to improve forecasts models by funding projects that:
The S2S program additionally funds and coordinates aspects of the ongoing North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), an interagency/intergovernmental ensemble of coupled models from centers in the US and Canada, providing data for global, 12-month forecasts of 13 key variables. NMME data is used for multiple forecast needs.
August 8th, 2022: The Development of UFS Coupled GEFS for Weather and Subseasonal Forecasts Presenter: Dr. Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NCEP/EMC OAR/WPO S2S Program and NWS/OSTI-Modeling invite…
Town Hall: Interagency Long-term Research and Monitoring Program Plan on Hydroclimatological Changes in the Major Western US River Basins NOAA, in partnership with multiple agencies,…
Don’t miss our upcoming sessions for: Prediction of Precipitation and Water Availability in the US West, S2S Metrics and Diagnostics, Emphasizing Coupling Processes, and Improving…
A presentation given at NOAA’s 46th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop used cluster analysis methods to investigate and forecast circulation regimes impact on weeks 3/4 predictions. This study demonstrates that the dominant circulation regimes over North America are combinations of teleconnections where the clusters are related to temperature and…
A recent study uses novel diagnostics to evaluate the ability of 11 state-of-the-art S2S forecast systems to represent the teleconnections of the MJO and the impact on midlatitude weather systems and prediction. Several S2S program funded projects contributed to this work. While highlighting where model developments may be most beneficial…
This project is working to improve modeling of US precipitation at longer time scales, by studying the impacts of MJO and QBO on precipitation events (and by extension, drought and water availability). Phenomena occurring in remote parts of the world and more layers of the atmosphere need to be properly…
Proposals were due by November 17th, 2022.
Corporate Authors(s):National Weather Service (U.S.) Published Date: 2020
DOI : https://doi.org/10.25923/mesd-8b58
SubX Current and Potential Users Forum Report
Personal Author(s): Bassett, Christine; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Smith, Jonathan;
Corporate Authors(s): Weather Program Office (U.S.)
Conference Author(s): SubX Current and Potential Users Forum, August 24 – 26, 2021
Published Date : 2022
DOI : https://doi.org/10.25923/a7kd-c322
Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
Published Date: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/azn6-ff23
Community-Supported Research Initiatives For Improvement of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction
Personal Author(s): Brooks, Maureen; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Brown, Bonnie; Sandgathe, Scott; McCarren, David; James, C. Sim;
Corporate Authors(s): The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)
Published Date: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/a4ca-p882
Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support
Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Weather Service; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.);
Conference Author(s): National Earth System Prediction Capability (sponsor)
Published Date: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/n9p9-q979
Community-Supported Research Initiatives For Improvement of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction
Personal Author(s): Brooks, Maureen; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Brown, Bonnie;Sandgathe, Scott; McCarren, David; James, C. Sim;
Corporate Authors(s): The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)
Published Date: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/a4ca-p882
Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Weather Service.; United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research;
Conference Author(s): Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal Workshop
Published Date: 2018
URL: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20613
Position paper on high performance computing needs in Earth system prediction
Personal Author(s): Carman, Jessie C.; Clune, Thomas; Giraldo, Francis; Govett, Mark; Kamrath, Anke; Lee, Tsengdar; McCarren, David; Michalakes, John; Sandgathe, Scott; Whitcomb, Tim;
Corporate Authors(s): National Earth System Prediction Capability (U.S.)
Published Date: 2017
DOI: http://doi.org/10.7289/V5862DH3
Exploring the Need for Reliable Decadal Prediction
Sandgathe, S., Brown, B. R., Carman, J. C., Infanti, J. M., Johnson, B., McCarren, D., & McIlvain, E. (2020). Exploring the Need for Reliable Decadal Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(2), E141-E145. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/2/bams-d-19-0248.1.xml
Bridging the Gap between Climate and Weather
Sandgathe, S., Carman, J., Johnson, B., & McIlvain, E. (2018). Bridging the Gap between Climate and Weather, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(11), ES191-ES193. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/11/bams-d-18-0154.1.xml
Six Priorities for Investment in Snow Research and Product Development
Hurwitz, M. M., Baxter, S., Brown, B., Carman, J., Dale, J., Draper, C., Horsfall, F., Hughes, M., Gerth, J., Kapnick, S., Olheiser, C., Olsen, M., Stachelski, C., Vincent, M., Webb, R., & Zdrojewski, J. (2020). Six Priorities for Investment in Snow Research and Product Development, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (published online ahead of print 2020). Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/bamsD200218/bamsD200218.xml
The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant
Carman, J. C., Eleuterio, D. P., Gallaudet, T. C., Geernaert, G. L., Harr, P. A., Kaye, J. A., McCarren, D. H., McLean, C. N., Sandgathe, S. A., Toepfer, F., & Uccellini, L. W. (2017). The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(2), 239-252. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/2/bams-d-16-0002.1.xml
