Heat waves push surface ozone levels to unhealthy levels, powerful streamers of moisture lead to torrential rain and flooding, and clusters of wildfires send far-reaching smoke emissions.
We work across the Weather Enterprise to improve fire, smoke, air pollution, and atmospheric river forecasts.
The Synoptic Program focuses on the analysis of weather patterns and systems at a specific point in time, using data from various sources, to understand large-scale atmospheric phenomena. The program includes air quality and wildland fire weather research and forecasting, as well as improvements to atmospheric river analyses and forecasts.
The program competitively funds NOAA laboratories, academic partners, and commercial industry with the goal of transitioning a breadth of research to actionable products and services. These range from National Weather Service air quality forecasts to aiding management of water resources in reservoirs.
We focus on improving atmospheric river (AR) forecasts in the western U.S., better predicting their landfall position, intensity, and precipitation amounts. That includes the development of a UFS-based AR forecast system and multi-model ensembles to create products that assist decision makers in the region. Water resource managers and other stakeholders benefit from increased AR accuracy through adjusting water management and preparing for hazardous impacts. Organizations participating in the AR collaboration include Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (PSL, GSL, and WPO); National Weather Service (WPC and EMC); National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS); the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at the University of California, San Diego; and the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) at the University of Alabama.
All across the nation, the impacts of wildfires are being felt. In 2025, more than 77 thousand wildfires were reported with more than five million acres burned and more than 12 thousand homes lost, according to the National Interagency Fire…
George Mason University’s (GMU) Center for Satellite and Earth Science Research (CSER) and NOAA’s Air Resources Lab have advanced NOAA’s Unified Forecast System-Air Quality Model (UFS-AQM) beyond its “Big-Leaf” canopy approximation by using detailed forest canopy processes and novel satellite…
This project will integrate DeepCTM, an advanced machine-learning model that emulates traditional chemical transport models (CTMs), into NOAA’s operational National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC). The goal is to improve the speed, accuracy, and resolution of air quality forecasts at…
