Scenes on a hike to Pyramid Mountain.

Sprawling weather phenomena produce local impacts

Understanding broad systems can help communities be more prepared by mitigating the hazards that come from them.

Heat waves push surface ozone levels to unhealthy levels, powerful streamers of moisture lead to torrential rain and flooding, and clusters of wildfires send far-reaching smoke emissions.

We work across the Weather Enterprise to improve fire, smoke, air pollution, and atmospheric river forecasts.

Research that Demonstrates Operational Improvement

Enhancing Fire, Air Quality, and Water Forecasts

The Synoptic Program focuses on the analysis of weather patterns and systems at a specific point in time, using data from various sources, to understand large-scale atmospheric phenomena. The program includes air quality and wildland fire weather research and forecasting, as well as improvements to atmospheric river analyses and forecasts.

The program competitively funds NOAA laboratories, academic partners, and commercial industry with the goal of transitioning a breadth of research to actionable products and services. These range from National Weather Service air quality forecasts to aiding management of water resources in reservoirs.

Current Focus Areas

Fire Weather

We focus on forecast system verification and predictability, Social science and decision support services, and Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting. We also work to develop components related to a next generation coupled wildfire-weather Unified Forecast System that leads to improved forecasts of fire behavior and smoke.

Air Quality

Our focus is on the development and evaluation of high-resolution (1–3 km) air quality forecast capabilities consistent with NOAA’s Rapid Refresh Forecast System, improved spatial and temporal estimates of anthropogenic and natural pollutant emissions, exploration and quantification of the potential value of ensemble model approaches, post processing and artificial intelligence to NOAA’s operational air quality forecasting guidance and improved model accuracy using data assimilation of remotely-sensed products or in-situ observations.

Atmospheric River

We focus on improving atmospheric river (AR) forecasts in the western U.S., better predicting their landfall position, intensity, and precipitation amounts. That includes the development of a UFS-based AR forecast system and multi-model ensembles to create products that assist decision makers in the region. Water resource managers and other stakeholders benefit from increased AR accuracy through adjusting water management and preparing for hazardous impacts. Organizations participating in the AR collaboration include Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (PSL, GSL, and WPO); National Weather Service (WPC and EMC); National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS); the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at the University of California, San Diego; and the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) at the University of Alabama.

PROJECT VIGNETTES

Improving Forecasts
for Air Quality & Fire Weather

Vertically Integrated Smoke over the US Graphic

Beyond the “Big-Leaf” Model at NOAA

Use of Novel Satellite Data and In-Canopy Processes to Improve U.S. Air Quality Predictions. PI Name & Contact: Patrick Campbell (pcampbe8@gmu.edu; patrick.c.campbell@noaa.gov). The Weather Program Office is working with George Mason University to advance the next-generation Rapid-Refresh Forecast System (RRFS)-Community…

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See all FY24 Funded Projects >

Resources

Tools for Air Quality and Fire Weather

National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC)
National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC)
How NOAA supports wildfire science and response
How NOAA supports wildfire science and response

We Provide Fire Weather, Air Quality, and AR Funding Support for the Weather Program Office

Contact Our Team

Linden Wolf

Synoptic Program Coordinator

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Lingyan Xin

Synoptic Program Manager

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