Ensemble Prediction and Predictability

A presentation given at NOAA’s 46th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop used cluster analysis methods to investigate and forecast circulation regimes impact on weeks 3/4 predictions.  This study demonstrates that the dominant circulation regimes over North America are combinations of teleconnections where the clusters are related to temperature and precipitation anomalies. The computationally efficient cluster framework provides skillful forecasts, particularly where the 500 hPa height forecasts are skillful in regions of strong anomaly correlations.  This analysis underscores the need for accurate modeling of dominant teleconnection modes such as the MJO, ENSO, and QBO for robust S2S scale predictions. 

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