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1213141516171819TornadoIdentification andTechnologyPublic Perceptionand BehaviorEconomic Impact,Risk andMitigation
Research CategoryRecord Count
Tornado Identification and Technology16
Warning Process, Development and Delivery19
Public Perception and Behavior19
Economic Impact, Risk and Mitigation13

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Year Title First Author Link Details
1991 Probabilities, Odds, and Forecasts of Rare Events Murphy https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/6/2/1520-0434_1991_006_0302_poafor_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=abstract-display
1994 What forecasts (seem to) mean Fischhoff https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0169207094900698
1997 The Role of Searching in Shaping Reactions to Earthquake Risk Information Mileti https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249985388_The_Role_of_Searching_in_Shaping_Reactions_to_Earthquake_Risk_Information
2003 Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: A Workshop Summary National Research Council https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/10597/communicating-uncertainties-in-weather-and-climate-information-a-workshop-summary
2005 Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting de Elia https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234878884_Diversity_in_Interpretations_of_Probability_Implications_for_Weather_Forecasting
2005 A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow": How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?" Gigerenzer https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x
2005 Communicating Uncertainty: Lessons Learned and Suggestions for Climate Change Assessment Patt https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631071304002822
2006 Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts National Research Council https://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/yzhu/NRC_report/NRC.pdf
2006 A Laboratory Study of the Benefits of Including Uncertainty Information in Weather Forecasts Roulston https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/21/1/waf887_1.xml
2007 Efficient and Effective? The 100-Year Flood in the Communication and Perception of Flood Risk Bell https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.08.004
2007 Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty" in Florida During the 2004 Hurricane Season" Broad https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237338062_Misinterpretations_of_the_Cone_of_Uncertainty_In_Florida_During_the_2004_Hurricane_Season
2007 Communicating Uncertainty Via Probabilities: The Case of Weather Forecasts Handmer https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.002
2008 Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society Anonymous https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/about-ams/ams-statements/archive-statements-of-the-ams/enhancing-weather-information-with-probability-forecasts/
2008 Editorial: Probabilistic Forecasting Gneiting https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00522.x
2008 Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public Morss https://www.researchgate.net/publication/253434601_Communicating_Uncertainty_in_Weather_Forecasts_A_Survey_of_the_US_Public
2008 Societal and Economic Research and Applications for Weather Forecasts - Priorities for the North American Thorpex Program Morss https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252666888_Societal_and_Economic_Research_and_Applications_For_Weather_Forecasts_Priorities_for_the_North_American_THORPEX_Program
2008 Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles Novak https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249612782_Operational_Forecaster_Uncertainty_Needs_and_Future_Roles
2009 Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information an Exploratory Study with Broadcast Meteorologists Demuth https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:15209
2009 300 Billion Served Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts Lazo https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:17170
2009 Hurricane Katrina Storm Surge Delineation: Implications for Future Storm Surge Forecasts and Warnings Melton https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-009-9483-z
2010 Challenges in Communicating and Using Ensembles in Operational Flood Forecasting Demeritt https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/met.194
2010 Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts in View of Public Criticism Du https://www.proquest.com/docview/745722070
2010 Communicating Forecast Uncertainty: Public Perception of Weather Forecast Uncertainty Joslyn https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.190
2010 Examining the Use of Weather Forecasts in Decision Scenarios: Results from a Us Survey with Implications for Uncertainty Communication Morss https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.196
2010 Predicting Weather and Climate: Uncertainty, Ensembles and Probability Parker https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1355219810000468
2010 Communicating Uncertainty in Hydro-Meteorological Forecasts: Mission Impossible? Ramos https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.202
2011 Exploring Variations in People's Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts Demuth https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:17250
2011 Public Response to a Catastrophic Southern California Earthquake: A Sociological Perspective Goltz https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1193/1.3575728
2011 Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future Spiegelhalter https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1191181?cookieSet=1
2011 Caveant Admonitus (Let the Forewarned Beware") the 1997 Grand Forks (USA) Flood Disaster" Todhunter https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/09653561111126076/full/html?skipTracking=true
2012 Effective Communication of Uncertainty in the IPCC Reports Budescu https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3
2012 Basis of a Formal Language for Facilitating Communication among Climate Modelers de Elia https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-011-1265-0
2012 Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk Information Demuth https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:12226
2012 Scientific Prerequisites to Comprehension of the Tropical Cyclone Forecast: Intensity, Track, and Size Drake https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258724587_Scientific_Prerequisites_to_Comprehension_of_the_Tropical_Cyclone_Forecast_Intensity_Track_and_Size
2012 Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error Joslyn https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51603186_Uncertainty_Forecasts_Improve_Weather-Related_Decisions_and_Attenuate_the_Effects_of_Forecast_Error
2012 Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events LeClerc https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277424219_Odds_Ratio_Forecasts_Increase_Precautionary_Action_for_Extreme_Weather_Events
2012 Boater Safety: Communicating Weather Forecast Information to High-Stakes End Users Savelli https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/4/1/wcas-d-11-00025_1.xml?rskey=Muaqr7&result=1
2012 Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards? Wood https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01645.x
2013 An Examination of the Effect of Perceived Risk on Preparedness Behavior Bourque https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0013916512437596
2013 The Tornado Warning Process a Review of Current Research, Challenges, and Opportunities Brotzge https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273606703_The_Tornado_Warning_Process_A_Review_of_Current_Research_Challenges_and_Opportunities
2013 Decisions with Uncertainty: The Glass Half Full Joslyn https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0963721413481473
2013 Predictability, Uncertainty and Decision Making: A Unified Perspective to Build a Bridge from Weather to Climate Kumar https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343513000651
2013 Dynamic Simulation as an Approach to Understanding Hurricane Risk Response: Insights from the Stormview Lab Meyer https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01935.x
2013 Visualizing Probabilistic Flood Forecast Information: Expert Preferences and Perceptions of Best Practice in Uncertainty Communication Pappenberger https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9253
2013 How Forecasts Expressing Uncertainty Are Perceived by Uk Students Peachey https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wea.2094
2013 Do Probabilistic Forecasts Lead to Better Decisions? Ramos. https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/17/2219/2013/hess-17-2219-2013.pdf
2014 Tornado Warning Trade-Offs: Evaluating Choices for Visually Communicating Risk Ash https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/6/1/wcas-d-13-00021_1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display
2014 Probabilistic Flood Forecasting and Decision-Making: An Innovative Risk-Based Approach Dale https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z
2014 Uncertainty and Decision Making: Volcanic Crisis Scenarios Doyle https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000594
2014 The Collective Value of Weather Probabilistic Forecasts According to Public Threshold Distribution Patterns Kim https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/met.1424
2014 Probabilistic Forecasting and the Reshaping of Flood Risk Management Michaels https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19390459.2014.970800
2014 Using Percentiles to Communicate Snowfall Uncertainty Novak https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270719388_Using_Percentiles_to_Communicate_Snowfall_Uncertainty
2014 Challenges of Operational River Forecasting Pagano https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles%3A14232
2014 How Do Laypeople Evaluate the Degree of Certainty in a Weather Report? A Case Study of the Use of the Web Service Yr.No Sivle https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/6/3/wcas-d-12-00054_1.xml
2014 Effects of Track and Threat Information on Judgments of Hurricane Strike Probability Wu https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12128
2015 Do Location-Specific Forecasts Pose a New Challenge for Communicating Uncertainty? Abraham https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/met.1487
2015 Stay or Go? Examining Decision Making and Behavior in Hurricane Evacuations Bowser https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00139157.2015.1089145?journalCode=venv20
2015 The Real-Time Needs of Emergency Managers for Tropical Cyclone Storm Tide Forecasting: Results of a Participatory Stakeholder Engagement Process Burston https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-1794-7
2015 Forecast Communication through the Newspaper Part 2: Perceptions of Uncertainty Harris https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-015-0902-6
2015 The Use of Uncertainty Forecasts in Complex Decision Tasks and Various Weather Conditions Joslyn https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2015-47615-001
2015 Perception and Use of Uncertainty in Severe Weather Warnings by Emergency Services in Germany Kox https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809514001240
2015 The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making LeClerc https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.12336
2015 Communication of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts Marimo https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273481921_Communication_of_Uncertainty_in_Temperature_Forecasts
2015 Improving Storm Surge Risk Communication Stakeholder Perspectives Morrow https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:16648
2015 Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters, Public Officials, and Media Broadcasters in Boulder, Colorado Morss https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12403
2015 Human Estimates of Warning Uncertainty: Numerical and Verbal Descriptions Pardowitz https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290044994_Human_estimates_of_warning_uncertainty_Numerical_and_verbal_descriptions
2015 The Importance of Communicating Uncertainties in Forecasts: Overestimating the Risks from Winter Storm Juno Winkler https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/risa.12398
2015 Strike Probability Judgments and Protective Action Recommendations in a Dynamic Hurricane Tracking Task Wu https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-1846-z
2015 Communication and Interpretation of Regional Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the Italian Public Zabini https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1480
2016 Disaster Warnings in Your Pocket: How Audiences Interpret Mobile Alerts for an Unfamiliar Hazard Bean https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-5973.12108
2016 A Mental Models Study of Hurricane Forecast and Warning Production, Communication, and Decision-Making Bostrom https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/8/2/wcas-d-15-0033_1.xml
2016 Effectively Communicating Risk and Uncertainty to the Public Assessing the National Weather Service's Flood Forecast and Warning Tools Carr https://nurturenaturecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/BAMS-D-14-00248.pdf
2016 Increasing the Value of Uncertain Weather and River Forecasts for Emergency Managers Hoss https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275222875_Increasing_the_Value_of_Uncertain_Weather_and_River_Forecasts_for_Emergency_Managers
2016 How to Improve People's Interpretation of Probabilities of Precipitation Juanchich https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13669877.2014.983945?journalCode=rjrr20
2016 Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons Lindell https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-015-1990-5
2016 Understanding Public Hurricane Evacuation Decisions and Responses to Forecast and Warning Messages Morss https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:18475
2016 Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts Raftery https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sam.11302
2016 Use of Online Weather Information in Everyday Decision-Making by Laypeople and Implications for Communication of Weather Information Sivle https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1588
2016 Mobile Weather Apps or the Illusion of Certainty Zabini https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1589
2017 Increasing Users' Confidence in Uncertain Data by Aggregating Data from Multiple Sources Greis https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3025453.3025998
2017 Probabilistic Interval Forecasts: An Individual Differences Approach to Understanding Forecast Communication Grounds https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320012488_Probabilistic_Interval_Forecasts_An_Individual_Differences_Approach_to_Understanding_Forecast_Communication
2017 Cost-Loss Analysis of Ensemble Solar Wind Forecasting: Space Weather Use of Terrestrial Weather Tools Henley https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321624397_Cost-loss_analysis_of_ensemble_solar_wind_forecasting_-_space_weather_use_of_terrestrial_weather_tools
2017 To Act or Not to Act? Factors Influencing the General Public’s Decision About Whether to Take Protective Action against Severe Weather Kox https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311811198_To_Act_or_Not_To_Act_Factors_Influencing_the_General_Public%27s_Decision_about_Whether_to_Take_Protective_Action_against_Severe_Weather
2017 Is a Picture Worth a Thousand Words? The Effects of Maps and Warning Messages on How Publics Respond to Disaster Information Liu https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0363811116303319
2017 User Perception and Interpretation of Tornado Probabilistic Hazard Information: Comparison of Four Graphical Designs Miran https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003687017301497
2017 Visualizing Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Scientist and Stakeholder Decisions Using Different Graphical Representations and Conflicting Forecasts Mulder https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/9/3/wcas-d-16-0062_1.xml
2017 Optimistic Bias and the Consistency of Hurricane Track Forecasts Sherman-Morris https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-017-2931-2
2017 Spot Weather Forecasts: Improving Utilization, Communication, and Perceptions of Accuracy in Sophisticated User Groups Wall https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/9/2/wcas-d-15-0055_1.xml?rskey=IV85eT&result=3
2018 Eyeing the Storm: How Residents of Coastal Florida See Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings Bostrom https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091830219X
2018 Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences Carr https://www.proquest.com/docview/2178517544?parentSessionId=ffB%2B44Z13H5PIE2z3xqJJGTmjO%2Bg8Q%2FQbnydtgHBv6k%3D
2018 Cold-Season Tornado Risk Communication: Case Studies from November 2016 to February 2017 Childs https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323764476_Cold-season_Tornado_Risk_Communication_Case_Studies_from_November_2016_-February_2017
2018 Chilean Wildfires Probabilistic Prediction, Emergency Response, and Public Communication Dacre https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/77659/9/bams-d-17-0111.1.pdf
2018 An R Package to Visualize and Communicate Uncertainty in Seasonal Climate Prediction Frías https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217305157
2018 Expressing Flood Likelihood: Return Period Versus Probability Grounds https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320218963_Expressing_Flood_Likelihood_Return_Period_versus_Probability
2018 Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty: Do Individual Differences Matter? Grounds https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324101163_Communicating_weather_forecast_uncertainty_Do_individual_differences_matter
2018 Use of Observational Weather Data and Forecasts in Emergency Management: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior Hoss https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/10/2/wcas-d-16-0088_1.xml
2018 Decision Making with Risk-Based Weather Warnings Mu https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091830400X
2018 Getting More out of Storm Surge Forecasts: Emergency Support Personnel Needs in North Carolina Munroe https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/10/4/wcas-d-17-0074_1.xml
2018 The Influence of Impact-Based Severe Weather Warnings on Risk Perceptions and Intended Protective Actions Potter https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918304011
2018 Facets a Proposed Next-Generation Paradigm for High-Impact Weather Forecasting Rothfusz https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/25691
2018 Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience Schumann https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12837
2018 Milling and Public Warnings Wood. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0013916517709561
2019 Communicating model uncertainty for natural hazards: A qualitative systematic thematic review Doyle https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420918306630
2019 Chapter 19 - Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities Robbins https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B978012811714900019X
2019 How Emergency Managers (Mis?)Interpret Forecasts Wernstedt https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12293
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