The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) rolled out its experimental Week 2 Marine Hazards Outlook in mid-March, providing guidance about the chance of certain wave heights and wind speeds at longer lead times.
Because of the demand for information about wind and wave hazards beyond the upcoming week, OPC meteorologists researched how skillful such forecasts would be. They found that they could provide useful probabilistic forecasts outlining where winds and waves may pose a greater risk to life and property. Those forecasts benefit not just vessels at sea, but the entire maritime industry: port operations, fishing and aquaculture, oil and gas rigs, deep sea mining, and so on.
“The best safety or routing decisions made today are ones informed by what also to expect next week and beyond. This tool also helps mariners plan routes days before even getting underway,” says A.J. Reiss, OPC Director.
The outlook is currently updated three times per week and is based on the 00 UTC (8 p.m. EDT) run of the GFS Ensemble model. OPC plans to further develop this product by incorporating additional data and adding wave height probabilities from tropical storms and hurricanes.
The research and development of this initial experimental Week 2 outlook was supported through funding in WPO’s Subseasonal to Seasonal program.
