Image Credit- Authors: Greg Greg Jennrich, David Straus, Muthuvel Chelliah, and Cory Baggett

Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather via Circulation Regimes

A presentation given at NOAA’s 46th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop used cluster analysis methods to investigate and forecast circulation regimes impact on weeks 3/4 predictions.  This study demonstrates that the dominant circulation regimes over North America are combinations of teleconnections where the clusters are related to temperature and precipitation anomalies. The computationally efficient…

Photo Credit: NOAA This lone thunderhead quickly blew up just at sunset after a day of monsoonal showers near Williamson Valley, Az. Thunderhead over Table Mountain. Image ID: con00020, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Collection Location: Arizona, Williamson valley Photographer: Jeff Stillman Credit: NOAA Weather in Focus Photo Contest 2015

Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

A recent study uses novel diagnostics to evaluate the ability of 11 state-of-the-art Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecast systems to represent the teleconnections of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the impact on mid-latitude weather systems and prediction. Several S2S program funded projects contributed to this work. While highlighting where model developments may be most beneficial…