Image Credit- Authors: Greg Greg Jennrich, David Straus, Muthuvel Chelliah, and Cory Baggett

Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather via Circulation Regimes

A presentation given at NOAA’s 46th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop used cluster analysis methods to investigate and forecast circulation regimes impact on weeks 3/4 predictions.  This study demonstrates that the dominant circulation regimes over North America are combinations of teleconnections where the clusters are related to temperature and precipitation anomalies. The computationally efficient…

Photo Credit: NOAA This lone thunderhead quickly blew up just at sunset after a day of monsoonal showers near Williamson Valley, Az. Thunderhead over Table Mountain. Image ID: con00020, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) Collection Location: Arizona, Williamson valley Photographer: Jeff Stillman Credit: NOAA Weather in Focus Photo Contest 2015

Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

A recent study uses novel diagnostics to evaluate the ability of 11 state-of-the-art S2S forecast systems to represent the teleconnections of the MJO and the impact on midlatitude weather systems and prediction.  Several S2S program funded projects contributed to this work.  While highlighting where model developments may be most beneficial to improving predictions, the study…