As traditional weather models are pushed to predict further and further into the future, and global climate models are implemented at higher spatial and temporal resolution, the middle ground at prediction timescales of two weeks to two years has become not only an area of emerging need in various economic sectors, but also an area of robust and innovative scientific research and development. NOAA and the US Congress recognized this specific area of need when identifying forecasting and research mandates.
WPO’s Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) program seeks to advance two main goals identified by NOAA and in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (the Weather Act): (1) improving the skill of S2S forecasts, and (2) enhancing the value of S2S products for stakeholders.
The Weather Program Office (WPO) aims to reduce systematic model error and develop coupled prediction systems to fully exploit weather pattern modulations associated with air-ocean-land-ice interactions. WPO focuses on providing funding to advance the scientific development of earth system models, improving model representation of processes within and between model domains, including coupled data assimilation for better initialization of the coupled earth system state. Postprocessing, reanalysis/ reforecasts and statistical models can extract usable signal in ensembles contaminated by bias and random error. WPO seeks to improve ensemble design, reanalysis and reforecasting, multi-model ensembles, and statistical tools, which will be derived from and contribute to the development of NOAA's United Forecasting System. WPO will focus on improvements to the UFS system; EPIC will "advance weather modeling skill, reclaiming and maintaining international leadership in the area of Numerical Weather Prediction, and improving Research to Operations (R2O) by:"
- Leveraging the weather enterprise to provide expertise on removing barriers to improving NWP;
- Enabling scientists and engineers to effectively collaborate in areas important for improving operational global NWP skill, including model development, data assimilation techniques, system architecture integration, and computational efficiencies;
- Strengthening NOAA’s ability to undertake research projects in pursuit of substantial advancements in weather forecast skill;
- Utilizing and leveraging existing resources across NOAA’s enterprise; and
- Creating a community global weather research modeling system.
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Subseasonal to Seasonal Overview Download