Subseasonal to Seasonal Research (S2S) significantly aids decision support across industries and also provides the knowledge necessary for forecasters and emergency managers to keep the public informed and prepared for weather phenomena.
Subseasonal to Seasonal Research (S2S) is a priority area for NOAA and the US congress due to its ability to fill emerging forecast needs in various economic sectors. This is reflected in two primary goals identified by NOAA and in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (the Weather Act). The S2S program works to:
With new advances in forecasting, traditional weather models are pushed to predict further and further into the future. Global climate models are implemented at broader spatial and temporal resolution. This leaves a gap for prediction timescales of two weeks to two years, commonly referred to as the Subseasonal to Seasonal timescale.
The S2S program works to improve forecasts models by funding projects that:
The S2S program additionally funds and coordinates aspects of the ongoing North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), an interagency/intergovernmental ensemble of coupled models from centers in the US and Canada, providing data for global, 12-month forecasts of 13 key variables. NMME data is used for multiple forecast needs.
Mark Olsen, the S2S Program Manager at WPO, is serving as the Co-Chair for a poster session at the Ocean Sciences Meeting in New Orleans. The poster session D044A – Recent Progress in Advancing Global Coupled Ocean Models Poster will be held Thursday, February 22 from 4 to 6 p.m. in the Poster Hall, First Floor (NOLACC).
This project aims to enhance the realism of global ocean and sea ice simulations by implementing a version of the Modular Ocean Model version 6…
The 12th Symposium on Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise will be held at the American Meteorological Society (AMS) 104th Annual Meeting. The Subseasonal to Seasonal…
WPO is proud to share the news that seven members of our team have been recognized as recipients of the OAR 2023 awards.
The primary objectives are to review and evaluate the current capabilities and advancements of the NMME in addressing the challenges of seasonal climate predictability; and…
A presentation given at NOAA’s 46th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop used cluster analysis methods to investigate and forecast circulation regimes impact on weeks 3/4 predictions. This study demonstrates that the dominant circulation regimes over North America are combinations of teleconnections where the clusters are related to temperature and…
A recent study uses novel diagnostics to evaluate the ability of 11 state-of-the-art Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecast systems to represent the teleconnections of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the impact on mid-latitude weather systems and prediction. Several S2S program funded projects contributed to this work. While highlighting where model…
This project is working to improve modeling of US precipitation at longer time scales, by studying the impacts of MJO and QBO on precipitation events (and by extension, drought and water availability). Phenomena occurring in remote parts of the world and more layers of the atmosphere need to be properly…
NMME: Meeting Future Needs Workshop Report June 21-22, 2023
Report Author(s): Bassett, Christine; Carman, Jessie; Kang, DK; and Olsen, Mark.
Published Date: 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/f86r-b662
Corporate Author(s):National Weather Service (U.S.)
Published Date: 2020
DOI : https://doi.org/10.25923/mesd-8b58
SubX Current and Potential Users Forum Report
Personal Author(s): Bassett, Christine; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Smith, Jonathan.
Corporate Author(s): Weather Program Office (U.S.)
Conference Author(s): SubX Current and Potential Users Forum, August 24 – 26, 2021
Published Date: 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/a7kd-c322
Community-Supported Research Initiatives For Improvement of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction
Personal Author(s): Brooks, Maureen; Carman, Jessie; Olsen, Mark; Brown, Bonnie;Sandgathe, Scott; McCarren, David; James, C. Sim;
Corporate Authors(s): The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC)
Published Date: 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/a4ca-p882
Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
Published Date: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/azn6-ff23
Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support
Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Weather Service; National Centers for Environmental Prediction (U.S.);
Conference Author(s): National Earth System Prediction Capability (sponsor)
Published Date: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25923/n9p9-q979
Corporate Authors(s): United States. National Weather Service.; United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research;
Conference Author(s): Metrics, Post-processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal Workshop
Published Date: 2018
URL: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/20613
Position paper on high performance computing needs in Earth system prediction
Personal Author(s): Carman, Jessie C.; Clune, Thomas; Giraldo, Francis; Govett, Mark; Kamrath, Anke; Lee, Tsengdar; McCarren, David; Michalakes, John; Sandgathe, Scott; Whitcomb, Tim;
Corporate Authors(s): National Earth System Prediction Capability (U.S.)
Published Date: 2017
DOI: http://doi.org/10.7289/V5862DH3
Exploring the Need for Reliable Decadal Prediction
Sandgathe, S., Brown, B. R., Carman, J. C., Infanti, J. M., Johnson, B., McCarren, D., & McIlvain, E. (2020). Exploring the Need for Reliable Decadal Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(2), E141-E145. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/2/bams-d-19-0248.1.xml
Bridging the Gap between Climate and Weather
Sandgathe, S., Carman, J., Johnson, B., & McIlvain, E. (2018). Bridging the Gap between Climate and Weather, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(11), ES191-ES193. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/11/bams-d-18-0154.1.xml
Six Priorities for Investment in Snow Research and Product Development
Hurwitz, M. M., Baxter, S., Brown, B., Carman, J., Dale, J., Draper, C., Horsfall, F., Hughes, M., Gerth, J., Kapnick, S., Olheiser, C., Olsen, M., Stachelski, C., Vincent, M., Webb, R., & Zdrojewski, J. (2020). Six Priorities for Investment in Snow Research and Product Development, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (published online ahead of print 2020). Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/bamsD200218/bamsD200218.xml
The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant
Carman, J. C., Eleuterio, D. P., Gallaudet, T. C., Geernaert, G. L., Harr, P. A., Kaye, J. A., McCarren, D. H., McLean, C. N., Sandgathe, S. A., Toepfer, F., & Uccellini, L. W. (2017). The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(2), 239-252. Retrieved Aug 24, 2022, from https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/2/bams-d-16-0002.1.xml
