Billion-Dollar Disasters

Managing funds to improve prediction of extreme events.

In 2024, the United States experienced 27 weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each (source: NOAA NCEI). These events resulted in the deaths of 568 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted.

NOAA is working on solutions to improve extreme weather forecasts to save lives, reduce property damage, and better prepare the public for disastrous weather events. The Weather Program Office contributes to these solutions by allocating funds set aside by Congress to improve forecasting of extreme events through scientific research.

360-Degree Coordination

Critical Areas for Improvement in Weather Forecasting

The Weather Program Office provides 360 degree coordination of the planning, budget execution, monitoring, analysis, reporting, and communication of the projects funded by supplemental appropriations. This includes the following supplemental appropriations for Fiscal Years 2018-2022 and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) funds, specifically for Provision 3 for the following amounts and number of projects:

$50M FY18 (27 projects)
$25M FY19 (11 projects)
$55M FY22 or DRSA (28 projects)
$40M IIJA Provision 3 (10 projects)

As the lead representing the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) in this cross-Line Office effort, this team is partnered with National Weather Service (NWS), National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and National Ocean Service (NOS). This results in the successful execution of the supplemental projects and funds to improve weather forecasting of extreme weather events.

The supplemental appropriations team manages several portfolios that organize and administer funds for sets of projects, based on critical areas for forecast improvement. These include the Improving Forecasting and Assimilation (IFAA) Portfolio, the Improving Forecasting of Hurricanes, Flood, and Wildfires (IFHFW) Portfolio, and the Wildfires, Hurricanes, Extreme precipitation, and Floods (WHEF) Portfolio.

Current Focus Areas

Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

Efforts to improve intensity forecasts include supporting in-situ ocean and atmosphere observing systems, hurricane forecast model advancements, enhanced data assimilation methods, and communication effectiveness improvements.

Flood Forecasting & Mitigation and Extreme Precipitation

The Disaster Supplemental team supports projects that accelerate flood prediction capabilities, improve flood forecasting and mitigation capabilities, and improve prediction of extreme precipitation events.

Wildfire Prediction, and Detection and Forecasting

We manage research that accelerates wildfire prediction, detection, and forecasting. This includes improving detection and forecasts of conditions leading to the onset of wildfires and improving wildfire smoke forecasting capabilities, particularly in the Western United States.

Data Assimilation to Improve Forecasting

The team oversees data assimilation efforts for Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) development acceleration, increasing observations operationally assimilated into NOAA models, improving current data assimilation methods, and strategizing data assimilation into the Unified Forecast System (UFS).

Project Vignettes

Targeted Forecast Improvement

New Research funded in Fiscal Year 2022

PROJECT VIGNETTES

Targeted Forecast Improvement

National Water Model 10-day Anomaly. Photo Credit: NOAA National Weather Service

Currently Funded Projects

Hurricanes

Wildfire

Flooding

Image of Hurricane Florence making landfall on the East Coast

Results-Driven Reporting

Disaster Supplemental Storymaps

WPO provides reporting to communicate the research results for supplemental funding allocated by Congress. Click the below links to get the interactive reports.

FY2018 Report > FY2019 Report > FY2022 Report >