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Over the last several years, Russ Schumacher, professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science and Colorado State Climatologist, has led a team developing a sophisticated machine learning model for advancing skillful prediction of hazardous weather across the continental United States. First trained on historical records of excessive rainfall, the model is now smart enough to make accurate predictions of events like tornadoes and hail four to eight days in advance – the crucial sweet spot for forecasters to get information out to the public so they can prepare. The model is called CSU-MLP, or Colorado State University-Machine Learning Probabilities.
We are a weather-weary and weather-worn nation, and the increase in billion-dollar disasters remains unabated. In the last 5 years alone, the United States has endured a total of 89 billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The U.S. government has responded with increased resources to better understand the weather and climate conditions that affect us…
According to NOAA, Hurricane Ian became the 15th Billion-Dollar disaster in 2022. Landfall impacts from Ian are still being felt, as residents of the Florida coast begin rebuilding their homes where severe flooding and damage took place. Though devastating, Hurricane Ian spurred a newfound interest in forecast and risk communication in the media, and provided…
A new article published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society details how the Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) is working to unify community weather modeling and advance numerical weather prediction using open-source and open-science methods. Written by current and former NOAA leaders Richard W. Spinrad, Louis W. Uccellini, Dorothy M. Koch, Craig N.…
WPO recently held a webinar hosted by the NOAA Central Library on the FY23 Notice of Funding Opportunity. Our Program Managers spoke in detail about about this year’s competitions for Observations, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Innovations for Community Modeling, and VORTEX-USA. We also shared tips on how to write a compelling proposal, how to successfully…
The Observations Program at the Weather Program Office has partnered with WindBorne Systems, Inc. to fund the development of an advanced weather balloon. This technology offers a low cost platform enabling collection of surface to stratosphere weather data in lesser-sampled regions. Long Range Sampling and Dynamic Altitude Control With an average flight time of 7…
Radar is an essential observing technology for weather forecasting and research. It provides critical data for weather forecasts and warnings, benefits meteorological research and aids the National Weather Service’s (NWS) delivery of impact-based decision support services to partners. This includes those in the emergency management and water resources communities, and federal, state, local, tribal, and…
Over the last 15 years, NOAA has made great strides in integrating social and behavioral sciences in part through externally funded research projects. The goal of these efforts is to improve the communication of forecast products, assess the verbal and visual presentation of uncertainty, understand hazardous weather decision environments, and more. While much social and…