Workshop Report Now Available
This two-day hybrid workshop was hosted out of the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, MD. Day 1 activities provided a historical perspective on the NMME and highlighted existing use/needs cases. On Day 2, participants delved into how the NMME fits into the research community and collaboratively set the future for NMME to explore unmet needs. Breakout groups examined potential modifications to production and data protocols, with their impacts on NMME infrastructure and cost.
Workshop dates: June 21-22, 2023
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD (and online)
Main Workshop Goals
We are interested in the potential to extend the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) framework to a broader range of decision needs and research efforts to meet those needs, as the NMME structure and partnership has proven resilient with time. The two primary goals of this workshop are 1) to establish current uses of NMME across forecast data users and 2) to explore some of the potential data needs, what decisions that data might meet, and the required infrastructure and cost to support those data needs.
What is NMME?
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), composed of state-of-the-art fully coupled global models from North American research and operational centers, has been ongoing for 12 years. Its primary goals are to 1) enhance operational seasonal forecasts at the NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and 2) enable research on seasonal prediction and modeling.
The original NMME protocol established requirements for horizontal resolution (1° longitude x 1° latitude), number of lead months (at least 9), retrospective forecasts (1982–2010), and delivery date (eighth of each month). The protocol established a base set of monthly-mean forecast variables (e.g., 2-m temperature, precipitation rate, sea surface temperature) and required hindcasts to use the same version and initialization as the real-time forecast model, to enable forecast users to apply bias correction and perform skill analysis as desired.
Beyond this, details of the models were left up to modeling centers, including model physics, initialization and ensembling strategies, and native resolution. This protocol encouraged as much model diversity as possible, while minimizing the technical burden on forecast data users.
Since the development of NMME, we have seen that the increasing demands on hydrologic, transportation, agriculture, and other sectors involve specific information at different times to meet decision makers’ needs. These increasing demands compel an evolution of the NMME framework that fosters research to fill the gaps and supports operations to deliver the services.
Day 1: Wednesday, June 21, 2023
8:00 AM COFFEE
8:30 AM Welcome and Opening Remarks 0830am – Carman and Olsen
Goals and Expected Outcomes | 20 min.
Jessie Carman, Ph.D., NOAA WPO
Workshop Structure and Logistics | 10 min.
Mark Olsen, Ph.D., NOAA WPO
9:00 AM Keynote Speakers
Building seasonal predictions for purpose: How the NMME supports early warnings, climate adaptation, and commerce | 20 min. 0900am – Kapnick
Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., NOAA Chief Scientist
Progress in federal coordination to advance meteorological science and services | 20 min. 0920 am – Weaver
Scott Weaver, Ph.D., White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
9:40 AM BREAK
10:00 AM State of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
NMME applications research | 20 min. 1000 am – Kirtman
Benjamin Kirtman, Ph.D., University of Miami
NMME prediction research | 20 min. 1000 am – Becker
Emily Becker, Ph.D., University of Miami
NMME operations | 20 min. 1000 am – Rosencrans
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
11:00 AM Model Improvements
Future evolution of the NCEP operational prediction systems | 15 min. 1100 am – Tallapragada
Vijay Tallapragada, Ph.D., NOAA Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
Recent advancements on the community Unified Forecast System | 15 min. 1100 am – Jacobs
Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
11:30 AM Morning Q&A
12:00 PM LUNCH
1:30 PM End User Activities and Needs
Climate information: user needs and user uses (Keynote) | 20 min. 0130 pm – Baethgen
Walter E. Baethgen, Ph.D., Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate & Society
CPC use of NMME and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Challenges | 15 min. 0130 pm – DeWitt
David DeWitt, Ph.D., NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Leveraging the NMME for marine ecosystem prediction | 15 min. 0130 pm – Jacox
Michael Jacox, Ph.D., NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
Chesapeake Bay Vibrio seasonal prediction | 15 min. 0130 pm – Jacobs
John Jacobs, Ph.D., NOAA National Center for Coastal and Ocean Sciences
Reservoir adaptive management: What weather forecast enhancements are needed in Texas? | 15 min. 0130 pm – Cotter
Jerry Cotter, Ph.D., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
What is usable skill for water management? (Keynote Presentation) | 20 min. 0130 pm – Jones
Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources
3:15 PM BREAK
3:30 PM Operational Gaps Discussion Panel
Panelists
Jon Gottschalck, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Michael Jacox, Ph.D., NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center
Benjamin Kirtman, Ph.D., University of Miami
Samantha Kramer, Ph.D., Sonoma Tech
Moderator
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
4:45 PM ADJOURN
Day 2: Thursday, June 22, 2023
8:00 AM COFFEE
9:00 AM Research Community Needs Discussion Panel
Panelists
Emily Becker, Ph.D., University of Miami
Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
Nathaniel Johnson, Ph.D., NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 0900 am – NJohnson
Bill Merryfield, Ph.D., Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis 0900 am – Merryfield
Michael Tippett, Ph.D., Columbia University 0900 am – Tippett
Moderator
Benjamin Kirtman, Ph.D., University of Miami
10:30 AM BREAK
10:45 AM Breakout Session Instructions
11:00 AM Breakout Session 1: Scientific Challenges
Group 1A: Data Needs and Access
Leads: Andrew Robertson, Ph.D.
Group 1B: Model Improvements
Leads: Vijay Tallapragada, Ph.D.
Group 1C: Prediction/Predictability Testbed
Leads: Dr. Wanqui Wang, Ph.D.
12:00 PM LUNCH
1:00 PM Breakout Session 2: Technical Challenges
Group 2A: Operational Gaps
Leads: Matthew Rosencrans
Group 2B: Modeling Center Challenges
Leads: Dr. Bill Merryfield, Ph.D. and Andrea Molod, Ph.D.
Group 2C: Initialization Frequency: Requirements and Limitations
Leads: Emily Becker, Ph.D. and Benjamin Kirtman, Ph.D.
2:00 PM Breakout Session Report Out and Discussion
Moderators
Emily Becker, Ph.D., University of Miami
Benjamin Kirtman, Ph.D., University of Miami
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
3:00 PM BREAK
3:30 PM Meeting Outcomes: Informing the Evolution of the NMME
Moderators
Dorothy Koch, Ph.D., Weather Program Office
Brian Gross, Ph.D., NWS Environmental Modeling Center
Benjamin Kirtman, Ph.D., University of Miami
David DeWitt, Ph.D., NOAA Climate Prediction Center
4:30 PM Closing Remarks
Wrap-up | 15 min.
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
4:45 PM ADJOURN
Dr. Sarah Kapnick
NOAA Chief Scientist
Sarah Kapnick, Ph.D., serves as chief scientist for NOAA, where she is responsible for guiding the programmatic focus ofNOAA’s science and technology priorities. Her expertise in climate science has made her a trusted resource across the federal government and for national and international outlets and publications. Prior to her current role, Dr. Kapnick previously held a position as a physical scientist and deputy division leader on seasonal to decadal variability and predictability at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Most recently, she served as a managing director at J.P. Morgan, functioning as Senior Climate Scientist and Sustainability Strategist for Asset and Wealth Management. She received a Ph.D. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences with a Certificate in Leaders in Sustainability from UCLA, and an A.B. in Mathematics with a Certificate in Finance from Princeton University.
Dr. Scott Weaver
White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
Scott J. Weaver is Executive Director of the Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorological
Services (ICAMS) at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Prior to joining the Executive Office of the President, Dr. Weaver served as the Director of the NIST-led interagency National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program, and as the Senior Climate Scientist for Environmental Defense Fund, where he engaged in research at the intersection of meteorology, climate science, and international climate policy goals. Dr. Weaver also spent several years as a Research Meteorologist in the NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, where his scientific research and service activities led to improved understanding of the climatic context for extreme weather and climate events. While at NOAA, President Obama awarded Dr. Weaver with the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE) in 2012 for innovative research at the frontiers of science and technology.
Dr. Walter Baethgen
Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate & Society
Walter E. Baethgen is Senior Research Scientist, Director of the Regional and Sectoral Research program in the IRI, and served as Acting Director of the Agriculture and Food Security Center, both at The Earth Institute, Columbia University. Since May 2020 he also serves as Vice-president of the Board of Directors of INIA-Uruguay. He has established regional programs that aim to improve climate risk assessment and risk management in agriculture, water resources, and natural ecosystems. He acted as a consultant for the World Bank, IADB, IICA, and the United Nations (UNDP, UNIDO, FAO, IAEA) and to governments and the private sector in several countries of Latin America. He was an author in IPCC’s Second, Third and Fourth Assessment Reports and he was a member of the IPCC team that received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. Baethgen obtained his PhD and M.Sc. degrees in Environmental Sciences from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and his B.Sc. in Agricultural Engineering from the University of Uruguay. He has over 150 publications to his credit.
Jeanine Jones
California Department of Water Resources
Jeanine Jones is the Interstate Resources Manager for the California Department of Water Resources. She has more than 40 years of experience with DWR, including participating in interstate water negotiations and managing drought preparedness and response. She also serves on the Western States Water Council (where she is a former Chair) and Colorado River Board of California. Jones is a registered professional engineer in California and Nevada.
Venue Address:
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
5830 University Court
College Park, MD 20740
Food and Beverages:
During the workshop, coffee and/or lunch packages are available for each day. Coffee is $5/day and lunch is $15/day. You may order a combination of coffee and lunch for $20/day. If you are interested in ordering this option, you will need to fill out a separate order form (note: you will be prompted for payment after submitting your order). Please place any food orders no later than 5:00 pm EDT, Monday, June 12.
Lodging:
College Park
7777 Baltimore Ave.
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 277-7777
*There are several other lodging options available, which can be found at https://collegepark.life/listing-category/hotels/
Greenbelt (will require ground transportation)
Ground Transportation:
From BWI and DCA:
Rental car or there is a bus that goes to Greenbelt Metro, then local transportation is available.
Local Driving Directions:
-
-
-
From: North495 East (Inner Loop) to MD 201, Kenilworth Ave. SouthRight on River RoadRight on University Research Court (Street sign is very small)Left into the site near the end of the cul-de-sacRight into the parking area / garage
- From: South
495 North (Outer Loop toward Baltimore/College Park) to MD
201, Kenilworth Ave. South
Right on River Road
Right on University Research Court (Street sign is very small)
Left into the site near the end of the cul-de-sac
Right into the parking area / garage
-
-
Contact Us:
Dr. Emily Becker (emily.becker@miami.edu)
Dr. Jessie Carman (jessie.carman@noaa.gov)
Matthew Rosencrans (matthew.rosencrans@noaa.gov)
For Further Reading: A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions, Emily Becker (https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0327.1)
